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Chess openings by real win rate

Ranked by the score each opening actually gets for its own side in real Lichess games at 1600-1800. Sample size is shown for every row: a rate over a small sample is not a signal. Want just two side by side? Try the Compare Openings tool →. Want the full move tree for your own rating band instead? Try the Repertoire Explorer →.

Data last updated 2026-08-30, sourced from 80,284 real Lichess games (1600-1800).

Compare all 12 openings

Ranked by score among games between similarly-rated opponents (rating gap ≤50), which removes the biggest confound in a raw comparison like this: players who choose one opening are not the same players who choose another, so a raw score difference partly reflects who tends to play each opening, not just how it performs. This ranking does not control for anything beyond that rating gap; time-control mix and how each player group prepares are still unmeasured. Rows too close to call given their own sample sizes share a rank.

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Opening comparison at 1600-1800
#OpeningECOFirst movesGames (1600-1800)Score for its side
1 Scotch Game C44 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 3,538 54.0%Rating-gap-controlled score: 95 percent confidence interval 52.1 to 55.9 percent, 2,649 games. (54.6% all games)
1 Queen’s Gambit D06 1.d4 d5 2.c4 7,344 53.3%Rating-gap-controlled score: 95 percent confidence interval 52.0 to 54.6 percent, 5,432 games. (54.1% all games)
1 London System D02 1.d4 d5 2.Bf4 4,003 53.3%Rating-gap-controlled score: 95 percent confidence interval 51.6 to 55.0 percent, 3,050 games. (52.3% all games)
1 Ruy Lopez C60 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 2,941 51.6%Rating-gap-controlled score: 95 percent confidence interval 49.5 to 53.7 percent, 2,122 games. (52.6% all games)
5 Italian Game C50 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 6,665 50.4%Rating-gap-controlled score: 95 percent confidence interval 49.0 to 51.8 percent, 4,928 games. (51.0% all games)
5 French Defense C00 1.e4 e6 11,261 50.2%Rating-gap-controlled score: 95 percent confidence interval 49.2 to 51.2 percent, 8,398 games. (50.0% all games)
5 Scandinavian Defense B01 1.e4 d5 11,721 49.6%Rating-gap-controlled score: 95 percent confidence interval 48.6 to 50.6 percent, 8,864 games. (49.6% all games)
5 Sicilian Defense B20 1.e4 c5 19,794 49.4%Rating-gap-controlled score: 95 percent confidence interval 48.6 to 50.2 percent, 14,369 games. (50.1% all games)
5 Caro-Kann Defense B10 1.e4 c6 9,647 49.4%Rating-gap-controlled score: 95 percent confidence interval 48.3 to 50.5 percent, 7,065 games. (49.8% all games)
5 Slav Defense D10 1.d4 d5 2.c4 c6 2,020 48.4%Rating-gap-controlled score: 95 percent confidence interval 45.9 to 50.9 percent, 1,488 games. (48.3% all games)
King’s Indian Defense E60 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 979 n/a
Nimzo-Indian Defense E20 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 Bb4 371 n/a

Browse by opening

The same openings, as their win / draw / loss split at 1600-1800. Open a card to see the full move-by-move breakdown.

Scotch Game

White/draw/black at 1600-1800: 52.1% / 4.9% / 43.0% 52.1% / 4.9% / 43.0%

Queen’s Gambit

White/draw/black at 1600-1800: 51.7% / 4.7% / 43.6% 51.7% / 4.7% / 43.6%

London System

White/draw/black at 1600-1800: 50.1% / 4.2% / 45.6% 50.1% / 4.2% / 45.6%

Ruy Lopez

White/draw/black at 1600-1800: 50.7% / 3.8% / 45.5% 50.7% / 3.8% / 45.5%

Italian Game

White/draw/black at 1600-1800: 49.2% / 3.6% / 47.2% 49.2% / 3.6% / 47.2%

French Defense

White/draw/black at 1600-1800: 47.9% / 4.2% / 48.0% 47.9% / 4.2% / 48.0%

Scandinavian Defense

White/draw/black at 1600-1800: 48.3% / 4.2% / 47.5% 48.3% / 4.2% / 47.5%

Sicilian Defense

White/draw/black at 1600-1800: 47.9% / 3.9% / 48.2% 47.9% / 3.9% / 48.2%

Caro-Kann Defense

White/draw/black at 1600-1800: 48.2% / 4.2% / 47.7% 48.2% / 4.2% / 47.7%

Slav Defense

White/draw/black at 1600-1800: 49.4% / 4.7% / 46.0% 49.4% / 4.7% / 46.0%

King’s Indian Defense

E60, playing as black

Nimzo-Indian Defense

E20, playing as black

Browse the Chess Opening Encyclopedia

Every one of the 3,810 named lines in the standard Encyclopaedia of Chess Openings classification, grouped into 149 opening families. Browse the Chess Opening Encyclopedia →