Slav Defense (D10): win rates at club level
1.d4 d5 2.c4 c6, playing as black. Data from 2,020 Lichess blitz games at 1600-1800.
The position
The idea
Like the Queen’s Gambit Declined, Black is defending the center and declining the c-pawn, but c6 keeps the option to develop the light-squared bishop outside the pawn chain before playing e6 - the same structural idea the Caro-Kann uses against e4. That flexibility is why the Slav has a reputation as one of Black’s most solid, hardest-to-crack replies to d4.
How it scores at your rating
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| Rating band | Games | White / draw / Black | Score for black |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1400-1600 | 1,240 | 51.2%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 48.4 to 54.0 percent, 1,240 games. / 4.8%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.6 to 6.0 percent, 1,240 games. / 44.0%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 41.2 to 46.8 percent, 1,240 games. | 46.4%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 43.7 to 49.1 percent, 1,240 games. |
| 1600-1800 | 2,020 | 49.4%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.2 to 51.6 percent, 2,020 games. / 4.7%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.8 to 5.6 percent, 2,020 games. / 46.0%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.8 to 48.2 percent, 2,020 games. | 48.3%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 46.2 to 50.4 percent, 2,020 games. |
| 1800-2000 | 2,237 | 51.9%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 49.8 to 54.0 percent, 2,237 games. / 5.7%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.7 to 6.7 percent, 2,237 games. / 42.4%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 40.4 to 44.4 percent, 2,237 games. | 45.3%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 43.3 to 47.3 percent, 2,237 games. |
| 2000+ | 1,948 | 52.7%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 50.5 to 54.9 percent, 1,948 games. / 6.1%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 5.0 to 7.2 percent, 1,948 games. / 41.2%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 39.0 to 43.4 percent, 1,948 games. | 44.3%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 42.2 to 46.4 percent, 1,948 games. |
What white actually plays next
Top replies at 1600-1800:
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| Move | Games | Played | Win / draw / loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nc3 | 1,159 | 57.4% | 49.4%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.5 to 52.2 percent, 1,159 games. / 4.5%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.4 to 5.8 percent, 1,159 games. / 46.2%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.3 to 49.0 percent, 1,159 games. |
| Nf3 | 316 | 15.6% | 51.6%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.1 to 57.0 percent, 316 games. / 4.4%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.7 to 7.3 percent, 316 games. / 44.0%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 38.6 to 49.5 percent, 316 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| cxd5 | 246 | 12.2% | 51.2%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 45.0 to 57.4 percent, 246 games. / 4.5%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.5 to 7.8 percent, 246 games. / 44.3%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 38.2 to 50.6 percent, 246 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| e3 | 191 | 9.5% | 49.2%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 42.2 to 56.2 percent, 191 games. / 6.8%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.0 to 11.3 percent, 191 games. / 44.0%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 37.1 to 51.1 percent, 191 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| c5 | 37 | 1.8% | 35.1%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 21.8 to 51.2 percent, 37 games. / 5.4%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 1.5 to 17.7 percent, 37 games. / 59.5%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.5 to 73.7 percent, 37 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| Bf4 | 32 | 1.6% | 43.8%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 28.2 to 60.7 percent, 32 games. / 6.3%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 1.7 to 20.1 percent, 32 games. / 50.0%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 33.6 to 66.4 percent, 32 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
Common mistakes at 1600-1800
No move at this band is both common and clearly low-scoring, controlling for rating gap. Players at this rating aren’t making an obvious mistake here.
Model games
Real games from the Lichess masters database.
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| White | Black | Result | Year | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aronian (2805) | Carlsen (2877) | ½-½ | 2014 | View game |
| Carlsen (2876) | Topalov (2798) | 0-1 | 2015 | View game |
| Ding Liren (2806) | Carlsen (2864) | 1-0 | 2022 | View game |
| Carlsen (2881) | Anand (2785) | 0-1 | 2014 | View game |
| Carlsen (2877) | Nakamura (2787) | 1-0 | 2014 | View game |
Build a repertoire from here
See the full move tree for players in your rating band: 1600-1800 repertoire explorer (black) →