Ruy Lopez (C60): win rates at club level

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5, playing as white. Data from 2,941 Lichess blitz games at 1600-1800.

The position

Position after 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5. Open this line on Lichess → · Ruy Lopez on Lichess

The idea

The bishop on b5 targets the knight defending e5, threatening to trade it off and leave the e-pawn hanging outright. Black almost always answers with a6, forcing White to choose between retreating to a4 to keep that pressure alive or trading on c6, giving up the bishop pair to saddle Black with doubled pawns. The middlegames that follow are some of the most studied in chess: slow maneuvering for central and kingside space rather than an early tactical fight.

How it scores at your rating

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Win/draw/loss rate by rating band
Rating bandGamesWhite / draw / BlackScore for white
1400-1600 3,225 White/draw/black: 52.8% / 3.7% / 43.5% 52.8%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 51.1 to 54.5 percent, 3,225 games. / 3.7%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.0 to 4.4 percent, 3,225 games. / 43.5%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 41.8 to 45.2 percent, 3,225 games. 54.7%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 53.0 to 56.4 percent, 3,225 games.
1600-1800 2,941 White/draw/black: 50.7% / 3.8% / 45.5% 50.7%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 48.9 to 52.5 percent, 2,941 games. / 3.8%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.1 to 4.5 percent, 2,941 games. / 45.5%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.7 to 47.3 percent, 2,941 games. 52.6%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 50.8 to 54.4 percent, 2,941 games.
1800-2000 2,497 White/draw/black: 49.7% / 5.0% / 45.3% 49.7%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.7 to 51.7 percent, 2,497 games. / 5.0%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.1 to 5.9 percent, 2,497 games. / 45.3%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.3 to 47.3 percent, 2,497 games. 52.2%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 50.3 to 54.1 percent, 2,497 games.
2000+ 2,374 White/draw/black: 48.1% / 10.2% / 41.7% 48.1%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.1 to 50.1 percent, 2,374 games. / 10.2%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 9.0 to 11.4 percent, 2,374 games. / 41.7%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 39.7 to 43.7 percent, 2,374 games. 53.2%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 51.3 to 55.1 percent, 2,374 games.

What black actually plays next

Top replies at 1600-1800:

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Most common replies at 1600-1800
MoveGamesPlayedWin / draw / loss
d6 843 28.7% d6 win/draw/loss 43.8%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 40.5 to 47.1 percent, 843 games. / 4.9%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.6 to 6.5 percent, 843 games. / 51.4%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 48.0 to 54.7 percent, 843 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously.
a6 641 21.8% a6 win/draw/loss 44.9%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 41.1 to 48.8 percent, 641 games. / 3.0%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 1.9 to 4.6 percent, 641 games. / 52.1%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 48.2 to 55.9 percent, 641 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously.
Bc5 449 15.3% Bc5 win/draw/loss 47.7%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.1 to 52.3 percent, 449 games. / 4.7%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.1 to 7.0 percent, 449 games. / 47.7%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.1 to 52.3 percent, 449 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously.
Nf6 424 14.4% Nf6 win/draw/loss 47.2%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 42.5 to 51.9 percent, 424 games. / 3.8%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.3 to 6.0 percent, 424 games. / 49.1%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 44.3 to 53.8 percent, 424 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously.
Nge7 186 6.3% Nge7 win/draw/loss 45.2%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 38.2 to 52.3 percent, 186 games. / 1.1%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 0.3 to 3.8 percent, 186 games. / 53.8%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.6 to 60.8 percent, 186 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously.
Nd4 140 4.8% Nd4 win/draw/loss 45.7%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 37.7 to 54.0 percent, 140 games. / 2.9%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 1.1 to 7.1 percent, 140 games. / 51.4%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.2 to 59.6 percent, 140 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously.

Common mistakes at 1600-1800

No move at this band is both common and clearly low-scoring, controlling for rating gap. Players at this rating aren’t making an obvious mistake here.

Model games

Real games from the Lichess masters database.

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Master games in this line
WhiteBlackResultYearGame
Carlsen (2882) Caruana (2818) ½-½ 2019 View game
Caruana (2818) Carlsen (2882) 1-0 2019 View game
Caruana (2835) Carlsen (2863) ½-½ 2020 View game
Caruana (2835) Carlsen (2863) ½-½ 2020 View game
Caruana (2819) Carlsen (2875) ½-½ 2019 View game

Build a repertoire from here

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