Scotch Game (C44): win rates at club level
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4, playing as white. Data from 3,538 Lichess blitz games at 1600-1800.
The position
The idea
Instead of the Ruy Lopez’s slow buildup, White strikes the center immediately with d4, offering a pawn trade to open the position before Black finishes developing. Play tends to get concrete fast: after exd4 Nxd4, White’s knight sits actively in the center and both sides usually finish developing within a few more moves, trading the long strategic battles of quieter openings for faster piece activity.
How it scores at your rating
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| Rating band | Games | White / draw / Black | Score for white |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1400-1600 | 3,668 | 53.2%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 51.6 to 54.8 percent, 3,668 games. / 3.5%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.9 to 4.1 percent, 3,668 games. / 43.2%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 41.6 to 44.8 percent, 3,668 games. | 55.0%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 53.4 to 56.6 percent, 3,668 games. |
| 1600-1800 | 3,538 | 52.1%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 50.5 to 53.7 percent, 3,538 games. / 4.9%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.2 to 5.6 percent, 3,538 games. / 43.0%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 41.4 to 44.6 percent, 3,538 games. | 54.6%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 53.0 to 56.2 percent, 3,538 games. |
| 1800-2000 | 2,117 | 52.8%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 50.7 to 54.9 percent, 2,117 games. / 4.9%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.0 to 5.8 percent, 2,117 games. / 42.3%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 40.2 to 44.4 percent, 2,117 games. | 55.2%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 53.1 to 57.3 percent, 2,117 games. |
| 2000+ | 1,188 | 46.3%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.5 to 49.1 percent, 1,188 games. / 7.5%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 6.0 to 9.0 percent, 1,188 games. / 46.2%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.4 to 49.0 percent, 1,188 games. | 50.0%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 47.3 to 52.7 percent, 1,188 games. |
What black actually plays next
Top replies at 1600-1800:
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| Move | Games | Played | Win / draw / loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| exd4 | 3,014 | 85.2% | 43.0%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 41.3 to 44.8 percent, 3,014 games. / 4.7%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.0 to 5.6 percent, 3,014 games. / 52.2%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 50.4 to 54.0 percent, 3,014 games. |
| d6 | 178 | 5.0% | 38.8%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 31.9 to 46.1 percent, 178 games. / 5.6%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.1 to 10.0 percent, 178 games. / 55.6%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 48.3 to 62.7 percent, 178 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| Nf6 | 115 | 3.3% | 40.9%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 32.3 to 50.0 percent, 115 games. / 7.0%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.6 to 13.1 percent, 115 games. / 52.2%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.1 to 61.1 percent, 115 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| Nxd4 | 46 | 1.3% | 43.5%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 30.2 to 57.8 percent, 46 games. / 6.5%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.2 to 17.5 percent, 46 games. / 50.0%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 36.1 to 63.9 percent, 46 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| d5 | 40 | 1.1% | 40.0%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 26.3 to 55.4 percent, 40 games. / 7.5%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.6 to 19.9 percent, 40 games. / 52.5%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 37.5 to 67.1 percent, 40 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| Bd6 | 38 | 1.1% | 52.6%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 37.3 to 67.5 percent, 38 games. / 2.6%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 0.5 to 13.5 percent, 38 games. / 44.7%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 30.1 to 60.3 percent, 38 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
Common mistakes at 1600-1800
No move at this band is both common and clearly low-scoring, controlling for rating gap. Players at this rating aren’t making an obvious mistake here.
Model games
Real games from the Lichess masters database.
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| White | Black | Result | Year | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlsen (2881) | Nakamura (2775) | ½-½ | 2014 | View game |
| Vachier Lagrave (2768) | Carlsen (2877) | ½-½ | 2014 | View game |
| So (2810) | Carlsen (2822) | 0-1 | 2017 | View game |
| Carlsen (2814) | Aronian (2805) | ½-½ | 2011 | View game |
| Radjabov (2784) | Carlsen (2835) | 0-1 | 2012 | View game |
Build a repertoire from here
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