Italian Game (C50): win rates at club level
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4, playing as white. Data from 6,665 Lichess blitz games at 1600-1800.
The position
The idea
The bishop on c4 aims straight at f7, the weak point closest to Black’s king before castling, while White races to finish development and claim the center with d3 or d4. How directly White presses that target splits the opening into two personalities: the quiet Giuoco Piano builds slowly behind c3 and d4, while the Two Knights Defense invites sharp tactics as early as move four if Black’s pieces stray too far from defense.
Drill this opening
Play the position out move by move and find out instantly whether you picked what players at your rating actually pick, and what that move scores.
How it scores at your rating
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| Rating band | Games | White / draw / Black | Score for white |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1400-1600 | 7,440 | 50.8%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 49.7 to 51.9 percent, 7,440 games. / 3.8%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.4 to 4.2 percent, 7,440 games. / 45.4%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 44.3 to 46.5 percent, 7,440 games. | 52.7%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 51.6 to 53.8 percent, 7,440 games. |
| 1600-1800 | 6,665 | 49.2%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 48.0 to 50.4 percent, 6,665 games. / 3.6%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.1 to 4.1 percent, 6,665 games. / 47.2%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.0 to 48.4 percent, 6,665 games. | 51.0%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 49.8 to 52.2 percent, 6,665 games. |
| 1800-2000 | 4,500 | 48.9%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.4 to 50.4 percent, 4,500 games. / 4.6%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.0 to 5.2 percent, 4,500 games. / 46.6%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 45.1 to 48.1 percent, 4,500 games. | 51.1%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 49.7 to 52.5 percent, 4,500 games. |
| 2000+ | 2,391 | 48.7%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.7 to 50.7 percent, 2,391 games. / 5.0%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.1 to 5.9 percent, 2,391 games. / 46.3%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 44.3 to 48.3 percent, 2,391 games. | 51.2%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 49.2 to 53.2 percent, 2,391 games. |
What black actually plays next
Top replies at 1600-1800:
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| Move | Games | Played | Win / draw / loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bc5 | 2,292 | 34.4% | 45.5%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.5 to 47.6 percent, 2,292 games. / 3.8%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.1 to 4.7 percent, 2,292 games. / 50.7%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 48.6 to 52.7 percent, 2,292 games. |
| Nf6 | 2,063 | 31.0% | 47.3%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 45.1 to 49.4 percent, 2,063 games. / 3.3%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.6 to 4.2 percent, 2,063 games. / 49.4%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.3 to 51.6 percent, 2,063 games. |
| h6 | 739 | 11.1% | 48.8%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 45.3 to 52.5 percent, 739 games. / 4.1%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.9 to 5.7 percent, 739 games. / 47.1%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.5 to 50.7 percent, 739 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| d6 | 568 | 8.5% | 45.6%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 41.5 to 49.7 percent, 568 games. / 4.2%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.9 to 6.2 percent, 568 games. / 50.2%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.1 to 54.3 percent, 568 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| Be7 | 336 | 5.0% | 50.3%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 45.0 to 55.6 percent, 336 games. / 5.1%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.2 to 8.0 percent, 336 games. / 44.6%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 39.4 to 50.0 percent, 336 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| f5 | 289 | 4.3% | 55.0%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 49.3 to 60.6 percent, 289 games. / 1.4%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 0.5 to 3.5 percent, 289 games. / 43.6%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 38.0 to 49.4 percent, 289 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
Common mistakes at 1600-1800
No move at this band is both common and clearly low-scoring, controlling for rating gap. Players at this rating aren’t making an obvious mistake here.
Model games
Real games from the Lichess masters database.
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| White | Black | Result | Year | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caruana (2835) | Carlsen (2863) | 0-1 | 2020 | View game |
| Kramnik (2812) | Carlsen (2855) | 0-1 | 2016 | View game |
| Caruana (2804) | Carlsen (2855) | 1-0 | 2016 | View game |
| Carlsen (2882) | So (2776) | 1-0 | 2019 | View game |
| Ding (2791) | Carlsen (2863) | 0-1 | 2020 | View game |
Build a repertoire from here
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