London System (D02): win rates at club level
1.d4 d5 2.Bf4, playing as white. Data from 4,003 Lichess blitz games at 1600-1800.
The position
The idea
White develops the same pieces to nearly the same squares in almost every game, whatever Black plays: bishop to f4 before the knight blocks it in, then e3, Bd3, and castling. That’s the appeal, not a weakness - it’s a low-theory, low-risk setup that avoids memorizing a different plan for each of Black’s replies, in exchange for less fighting chance at a real opening edge than a more theoretically demanding first move would give.
How it scores at your rating
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| Rating band | Games | White / draw / Black | Score for white |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1400-1600 | 4,152 | 51.9%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 50.4 to 53.4 percent, 4,152 games. / 4.4%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.8 to 5.0 percent, 4,152 games. / 43.6%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 42.1 to 45.1 percent, 4,152 games. | 54.1%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 52.6 to 55.6 percent, 4,152 games. |
| 1600-1800 | 4,003 | 50.1%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 48.6 to 51.6 percent, 4,003 games. / 4.2%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.6 to 4.8 percent, 4,003 games. / 45.6%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 44.1 to 47.1 percent, 4,003 games. | 52.3%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 50.8 to 53.8 percent, 4,003 games. |
| 1800-2000 | 2,609 | 49.1%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.2 to 51.0 percent, 2,609 games. / 5.6%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.7 to 6.5 percent, 2,609 games. / 45.3%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.4 to 47.2 percent, 2,609 games. | 51.9%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 50.0 to 53.8 percent, 2,609 games. |
| 2000+ | 1,295 | 49.5%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.8 to 52.2 percent, 1,295 games. / 6.8%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 5.4 to 8.2 percent, 1,295 games. / 43.7%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 41.0 to 46.4 percent, 1,295 games. | 52.9%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 50.3 to 55.5 percent, 1,295 games. |
What black actually plays next
Top replies at 1600-1800:
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| Move | Games | Played | Win / draw / loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nf6 | 1,084 | 27.1% | 43.8%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 40.9 to 46.8 percent, 1,084 games. / 5.4%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.2 to 6.9 percent, 1,084 games. / 50.8%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.9 to 53.8 percent, 1,084 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| e6 | 771 | 19.3% | 48.2%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 44.7 to 51.8 percent, 771 games. / 3.5%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.4 to 5.0 percent, 771 games. / 48.2%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 44.7 to 51.8 percent, 771 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| Nc6 | 726 | 18.1% | 42.0%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 38.5 to 45.6 percent, 726 games. / 3.3%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.2 to 4.9 percent, 726 games. / 54.7%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 51.0 to 58.3 percent, 726 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| Bf5 | 618 | 15.4% | 48.5%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 44.6 to 52.5 percent, 618 games. / 4.5%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.2 to 6.5 percent, 618 games. / 46.9%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.0 to 50.9 percent, 618 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| c5 | 302 | 7.5% | 49.3%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.7 to 54.9 percent, 302 games. / 4.0%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.3 to 6.8 percent, 302 games. / 46.7%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 41.1 to 52.3 percent, 302 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| c6 | 259 | 6.5% | 41.3%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 35.5 to 47.4 percent, 259 games. / 3.9%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.1 to 7.0 percent, 259 games. / 54.8%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 48.7 to 60.8 percent, 259 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
Common mistakes at 1600-1800
No move at this band is both common and clearly low-scoring, controlling for rating gap. Players at this rating aren’t making an obvious mistake here.
Model games
Real games from the Lichess masters database.
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| White | Black | Result | Year | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlsen (2832) | So (2812) | 1-0 | 2017 | View game |
| Carlsen (2855) | Giri (2785) | 1-0 | 2016 | View game |
| Carlsen (2832) | Caruana (2808) | 1-0 | 2017 | View game |
| So (2812) | Kramnik (2808) | ½-½ | 2017 | View game |
| So (2770) | Caruana (2835) | 1-0 | 2020 | View game |
Build a repertoire from here
See the full move tree for players in your rating band: 1600-1800 repertoire explorer (white) →