French Defense (C00): win rates at club level

1.e4 e6, playing as black. Data from 11,261 Lichess blitz games at 1600-1800.

The position

Position after 1.e4 e6. Open this line on Lichess → · French Defense on Lichess

The idea

Black prepares d5 without committing the light-squared bishop first, accepting that it may stay boxed in behind its own pawns for a while. After the common continuation d4 d5 e5, White typically gets more space and kingside attacking chances, while Black’s plan is to attack that pawn chain at both ends - c5 against its base, f6 against its head - rather than contest the center head-on.

How it scores at your rating

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Win/draw/loss rate by rating band
Rating bandGamesWhite / draw / BlackScore for black
1400-1600 9,446 White/draw/black: 48.4% / 3.5% / 48.1% 48.4%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.4 to 49.4 percent, 9,446 games. / 3.5%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.1 to 3.9 percent, 9,446 games. / 48.1%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.1 to 49.1 percent, 9,446 games. 49.8%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 48.8 to 50.8 percent, 9,446 games.
1600-1800 11,261 White/draw/black: 47.9% / 4.2% / 48.0% 47.9%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.0 to 48.8 percent, 11,261 games. / 4.2%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.8 to 4.6 percent, 11,261 games. / 48.0%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.1 to 48.9 percent, 11,261 games. 50.0%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 49.1 to 50.9 percent, 11,261 games.
1800-2000 9,907 White/draw/black: 48.1% / 4.9% / 46.9% 48.1%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.1 to 49.1 percent, 9,907 games. / 4.9%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.5 to 5.3 percent, 9,907 games. / 46.9%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 45.9 to 47.9 percent, 9,907 games. 49.4%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 48.4 to 50.4 percent, 9,907 games.
2000+ 7,689 White/draw/black: 48.2% / 6.6% / 45.1% 48.2%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.1 to 49.3 percent, 7,689 games. / 6.6%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 6.0 to 7.2 percent, 7,689 games. / 45.1%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 44.0 to 46.2 percent, 7,689 games. 48.4%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 47.3 to 49.5 percent, 7,689 games.

What white actually plays next

Top replies at 1600-1800:

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Most common replies at 1600-1800
MoveGamesPlayedWin / draw / loss
d4 5,022 44.6% d4 win/draw/loss 48.2%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.9 to 49.6 percent, 5,022 games. / 4.1%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.6 to 4.7 percent, 5,022 games. / 47.7%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.3 to 49.0 percent, 5,022 games.
Nf3 3,211 28.5% Nf3 win/draw/loss 47.0%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 45.3 to 48.7 percent, 3,211 games. / 4.6%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.9 to 5.4 percent, 3,211 games. / 48.4%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.7 to 50.2 percent, 3,211 games.
f4 719 6.4% f4 win/draw/loss 49.2%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 45.6 to 52.9 percent, 719 games. / 2.4%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 1.5 to 3.8 percent, 719 games. / 48.4%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 44.8 to 52.1 percent, 719 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously.
Nc3 698 6.2% Nc3 win/draw/loss 49.6%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 45.9 to 53.3 percent, 698 games. / 4.3%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.0 to 6.1 percent, 698 games. / 46.1%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 42.5 to 49.8 percent, 698 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously.
Bc4 540 4.8% Bc4 win/draw/loss 45.0%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 40.9 to 49.2 percent, 540 games. / 5.0%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.5 to 7.2 percent, 540 games. / 50.0%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 45.8 to 54.2 percent, 540 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously.
d3 277 2.5% d3 win/draw/loss 44.8%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 39.0 to 50.7 percent, 277 games. / 5.1%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.0 to 8.3 percent, 277 games. / 50.2%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 44.3 to 56.0 percent, 277 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously.

Common mistakes at 1600-1800

No move at this band is both common and clearly low-scoring, controlling for rating gap. Players at this rating aren’t making an obvious mistake here.

Model games

Real games from the Lichess masters database.

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Master games in this line
WhiteBlackResultYearGame
Carlsen (2875) Grischuk (2775) 1-0 2019 View game
So (2815) Carlsen (2832) ½-½ 2017 View game
Caruana (2817) So (2822) 0-1 2017 View game
Carlsen (2882) Rapport (2747) 1-0 2019 View game
Aronian (2781) Carlsen (2847) 1-0 2021 View game

Build a repertoire from here

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