Queen’s Gambit (D06): win rates at club level
1.d4 d5 2.c4, playing as white. Data from 7,344 Lichess blitz games at 1600-1800.
The position
The idea
The c-pawn isn’t a real sacrifice: if Black grabs it with dxc4, White gets it back quickly with a lead in development and active pieces, which is why the Queen’s Gambit Accepted is considered fine for White but rarely dangerous for Black. The more common replies, e6 or c6, decline the pawn and lead to rich middlegames fought over the c-file, the minority attack, and whether an eventual isolated queen’s pawn favors the side with more piece activity or the side that can blockade it.
How it scores at your rating
Scroll to see more →
| Rating band | Games | White / draw / Black | Score for white |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1400-1600 | 5,780 | 52.2%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 50.9 to 53.5 percent, 5,780 games. / 3.4%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.9 to 3.9 percent, 5,780 games. / 44.5%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.2 to 45.8 percent, 5,780 games. | 53.9%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 52.6 to 55.2 percent, 5,780 games. |
| 1600-1800 | 7,344 | 51.7%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 50.6 to 52.8 percent, 7,344 games. / 4.7%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.2 to 5.2 percent, 7,344 games. / 43.6%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 42.5 to 44.7 percent, 7,344 games. | 54.1%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 53.0 to 55.2 percent, 7,344 games. |
| 1800-2000 | 6,530 | 51.9%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 50.7 to 53.1 percent, 6,530 games. / 5.3%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.8 to 5.8 percent, 6,530 games. / 42.8%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 41.6 to 44.0 percent, 6,530 games. | 54.6%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 53.4 to 55.8 percent, 6,530 games. |
| 2000+ | 4,980 | 49.9%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 48.5 to 51.3 percent, 4,980 games. / 6.8%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 6.1 to 7.5 percent, 4,980 games. / 43.3%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 41.9 to 44.7 percent, 4,980 games. | 53.3%Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 52.0 to 54.6 percent, 4,980 games. |
What black actually plays next
Top replies at 1600-1800:
Scroll to see more →
| Move | Games | Played | Win / draw / loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| e6 | 1,894 | 25.8% | 45.3%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.1 to 47.6 percent, 1,894 games. / 5.2%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.3 to 6.3 percent, 1,894 games. / 49.5%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.2 to 51.7 percent, 1,894 games. |
| dxc4 | 1,535 | 20.9% | 41.7%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 39.3 to 44.2 percent, 1,535 games. / 4.2%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.3 to 5.4 percent, 1,535 games. / 54.1%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 51.6 to 56.6 percent, 1,535 games. |
| c6 | 1,469 | 20.0% | 45.3%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 42.7 to 47.8 percent, 1,469 games. / 4.9%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.9 to 6.1 percent, 1,469 games. / 49.8%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.3 to 52.4 percent, 1,469 games. |
| Nf6 | 1,284 | 17.5% | 42.1%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 39.4 to 44.8 percent, 1,284 games. / 4.8%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.8 to 6.1 percent, 1,284 games. / 53.1%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 50.4 to 55.8 percent, 1,284 games. |
| Bf5 | 389 | 5.3% | 41.6%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 36.9 to 46.6 percent, 389 games. / 4.4%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.7 to 6.9 percent, 389 games. / 54.0%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 49.0 to 58.9 percent, 389 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| e5 | 262 | 3.6% | 43.1%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 37.3 to 49.2 percent, 262 games. / 4.2%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.4 to 7.4 percent, 262 games. / 52.7%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.6 to 58.6 percent, 262 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
Common mistakes at 1600-1800
No move at this band is both common and clearly low-scoring, controlling for rating gap. Players at this rating aren’t making an obvious mistake here.
Model games
Real games from the Lichess masters database.
Scroll to see more →
| White | Black | Result | Year | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aronian (2805) | Carlsen (2877) | ½-½ | 2014 | View game |
| Carlsen (2876) | Nakamura (2802) | ½-½ | 2015 | View game |
| Carlsen (2876) | Topalov (2798) | 0-1 | 2015 | View game |
| Ding Liren (2806) | Carlsen (2864) | 1-0 | 2022 | View game |
| Carlsen (2853) | Nakamura (2814) | ½-½ | 2015 | View game |
Build a repertoire from here
See the full move tree for players in your rating band: 1600-1800 repertoire explorer (white) →