The chess opening meta, by rating band
Which openings players at your rating actually play, and how often those picks win. Every number on this site comes straight from real Lichess games.
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Openings behave differently at every rating. Pick your band - everything below is filtered to real games at that level.
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Openings by real win rate
12 openings, ranked by what they actually score in real games at each rating band - see all openings →
Italian Game
Scores 52.7% for white at 1400-1600 (7,440 games)Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 51.6 to 53.8 percent, 7,440 games.
Scores 51.0% for white at 1600-1800 (6,665 games)Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 49.8 to 52.2 percent, 6,665 games.
Scores 51.1% for white at 1800-2000 (4,500 games)Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 49.7 to 52.5 percent, 4,500 games.
Scores 51.2% for white at 2000+ (2,391 games)Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 49.2 to 53.2 percent, 2,391 games.
Ruy Lopez
Scores 54.7% for white at 1400-1600 (3,225 games)Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 53.0 to 56.4 percent, 3,225 games.
Scores 52.6% for white at 1600-1800 (2,941 games)Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 50.8 to 54.4 percent, 2,941 games.
Scores 52.2% for white at 1800-2000 (2,497 games)Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 50.3 to 54.1 percent, 2,497 games.
Scores 53.2% for white at 2000+ (2,374 games)Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 51.3 to 55.1 percent, 2,374 games.
Scotch Game
Scores 55.0% for white at 1400-1600 (3,668 games)Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 53.4 to 56.6 percent, 3,668 games.
Scores 54.6% for white at 1600-1800 (3,538 games)Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 53.0 to 56.2 percent, 3,538 games.
Scores 55.2% for white at 1800-2000 (2,117 games)Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 53.1 to 57.3 percent, 2,117 games.
Scores 50.0% for white at 2000+ (1,188 games)Score for white: 95 percent confidence interval 47.3 to 52.7 percent, 1,188 games.
Sicilian Defense
Scores 49.4% for black at 1400-1600 (13,508 games)Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 48.6 to 50.2 percent, 13,508 games.
Scores 50.1% for black at 1600-1800 (19,794 games)Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 49.4 to 50.8 percent, 19,794 games.
Scores 49.1% for black at 1800-2000 (19,995 games)Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 48.4 to 49.8 percent, 19,995 games.
Scores 48.6% for black at 2000+ (18,573 games)Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 47.9 to 49.3 percent, 18,573 games.
French Defense
Scores 49.8% for black at 1400-1600 (9,446 games)Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 48.8 to 50.8 percent, 9,446 games.
Scores 50.0% for black at 1600-1800 (11,261 games)Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 49.1 to 50.9 percent, 11,261 games.
Scores 49.4% for black at 1800-2000 (9,907 games)Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 48.4 to 50.4 percent, 9,907 games.
Scores 48.4% for black at 2000+ (7,689 games)Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 47.3 to 49.5 percent, 7,689 games.
Caro-Kann Defense
Scores 50.4% for black at 1400-1600 (8,168 games)Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 49.3 to 51.5 percent, 8,168 games.
Scores 49.8% for black at 1600-1800 (9,647 games)Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 48.8 to 50.8 percent, 9,647 games.
Scores 48.9% for black at 1800-2000 (8,878 games)Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 47.9 to 49.9 percent, 8,878 games.
Scores 48.9% for black at 2000+ (6,881 games)Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 47.8 to 50.0 percent, 6,881 games.