Sicilian Defense (B20): win rates at club level
1.e4 c5, playing as black. Data from 19,794 Lichess blitz games at 1600-1800.
The position
The idea
Black meets e4 with an asymmetrical reply instead of mirroring it with e5, aiming to trade the c-pawn for White’s d-pawn and open the c-file for a rook and queenside play later. That imbalance is the whole point: rather than settle into a level, drawish structure, both sides are fighting for different things from the first move, which is why the Sicilian produces some of the sharpest, most heavily analyzed positions in chess, from the Najdorf to the Dragon.
How it scores at your rating
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| Rating band | Games | White / draw / Black | Score for black |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1400-1600 | 13,508 | 48.9%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 48.1 to 49.7 percent, 13,508 games. / 3.4%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.1 to 3.7 percent, 13,508 games. / 47.7%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.9 to 48.5 percent, 13,508 games. | 49.4%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 48.6 to 50.2 percent, 13,508 games. |
| 1600-1800 | 19,794 | 47.9%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.2 to 48.6 percent, 19,794 games. / 3.9%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.6 to 4.2 percent, 19,794 games. / 48.2%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.5 to 48.9 percent, 19,794 games. | 50.1%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 49.4 to 50.8 percent, 19,794 games. |
| 1800-2000 | 19,995 | 48.6%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.9 to 49.3 percent, 19,995 games. / 4.5%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.2 to 4.8 percent, 19,995 games. / 46.9%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.2 to 47.6 percent, 19,995 games. | 49.1%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 48.4 to 49.8 percent, 19,995 games. |
| 2000+ | 18,573 | 48.4%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.7 to 49.1 percent, 18,573 games. / 6.0%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 5.7 to 6.3 percent, 18,573 games. / 45.7%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 45.0 to 46.4 percent, 18,573 games. | 48.6%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 47.9 to 49.3 percent, 18,573 games. |
What white actually plays next
Top replies at 1600-1800:
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| Move | Games | Played | Win / draw / loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nf3 | 10,083 | 50.9% | 48.2%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.2 to 49.2 percent, 10,083 games. / 3.9%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.5 to 4.3 percent, 10,083 games. / 47.9%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.9 to 48.9 percent, 10,083 games. |
| Bc4 | 2,018 | 10.2% | 45.1%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.0 to 47.3 percent, 2,018 games. / 3.7%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.9 to 4.6 percent, 2,018 games. / 51.2%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 49.0 to 53.4 percent, 2,018 games. |
| Nc3 | 1,721 | 8.7% | 49.7%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.4 to 52.1 percent, 1,721 games. / 4.4%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.5 to 5.5 percent, 1,721 games. / 45.8%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.5 to 48.2 percent, 1,721 games. |
| d4 | 1,459 | 7.4% | 46.9%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 44.4 to 49.5 percent, 1,459 games. / 4.7%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.7 to 5.9 percent, 1,459 games. / 48.4%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 45.8 to 51.0 percent, 1,459 games. |
| f4 | 1,386 | 7.0% | 50.2%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.6 to 52.8 percent, 1,386 games. / 3.3%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.5 to 4.4 percent, 1,386 games. / 46.5%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.9 to 49.1 percent, 1,386 games. |
| c3 | 1,382 | 7.0% | 46.7%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 44.1 to 49.4 percent, 1,382 games. / 4.2%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.3 to 5.4 percent, 1,382 games. / 49.1%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.4 to 51.7 percent, 1,382 games. |
Common mistakes at 1600-1800
No move at this band is both common and clearly low-scoring, controlling for rating gap. Players at this rating aren’t making an obvious mistake here.
Model games
Real games from the Lichess masters database.
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| White | Black | Result | Year | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caruana (2818) | Carlsen (2882) | 1-0 | 2019 | View game |
| Caruana (2835) | Carlsen (2863) | 1-0 | 2020 | View game |
| Caruana (2835) | Carlsen (2863) | 1-0 | 2020 | View game |
| Carlsen (2863) | Caruana (2835) | ½-½ | 2020 | View game |
| Caruana (2835) | Carlsen (2863) | 0-1 | 2020 | View game |
Build a repertoire from here
See the full move tree for players in your rating band: 1600-1800 repertoire explorer (black) →