King’s Indian Defense (E60): win rates at club level

1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6, playing as black. Data from 979 Lichess blitz games at 1600-1800.

The position

Position after 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6. Open this line on Lichess → · King’s Indian Defense on Lichess

The idea

Black lets White build a big classical center on purpose, planning to finish development behind a solid kingside fianchetto and then undermine that center later with e5 or c5. The resulting middlegames are famously opposite-wing battles: White pushes for space and play on the queenside while Black attacks the king with a pawn storm and piece play on the other side of the board.

How it scores at your rating

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Win/draw/loss rate by rating band
Rating bandGamesWhite / draw / BlackScore for black
1400-1600582Not enough games at this band yet.
1600-1800979Not enough games at this band yet.
1800-2000 1,332 White/draw/black: 50.3% / 5.5% / 44.2% 50.3%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.6 to 53.0 percent, 1,332 games. / 5.5%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.3 to 6.7 percent, 1,332 games. / 44.2%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 41.5 to 46.9 percent, 1,332 games. 47.0%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 44.4 to 49.6 percent, 1,332 games.
2000+ 1,851 White/draw/black: 48.5% / 7.0% / 44.6% 48.5%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.2 to 50.8 percent, 1,851 games. / 7.0%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 5.8 to 8.2 percent, 1,851 games. / 44.6%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 42.3 to 46.9 percent, 1,851 games. 48.1%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 45.9 to 50.3 percent, 1,851 games.

What white actually plays next

Top replies at 1600-1800:

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Most common replies at 1600-1800
MoveGamesPlayedWin / draw / loss
Nc3 743 75.9% Nc3 win/draw/loss 47.9%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 44.3 to 51.5 percent, 743 games. / 3.1%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.1 to 4.6 percent, 743 games. / 49.0%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 45.4 to 52.6 percent, 743 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously.
Nf3 106 10.8% Nf3 win/draw/loss 50.9%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 41.6 to 60.3 percent, 106 games. / 9.4%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 5.2 to 16.5 percent, 106 games. / 39.6%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 30.8 to 49.1 percent, 106 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously.
e3 51 5.2% e3 win/draw/loss 47.1%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 34.1 to 60.5 percent, 51 games. / 0.0%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 0.0 to 7.0 percent, 51 games. / 52.9%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 39.5 to 65.9 percent, 51 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously.
g3 21 2.1% g3 win/draw/loss 71.4%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 50.0 to 86.2 percent, 21 games. / 4.8%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 0.8 to 22.7 percent, 21 games. / 23.8%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 10.6 to 45.1 percent, 21 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously.
Bf4 19 1.9% Bf4 win/draw/loss 36.8%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 19.1 to 59.0 percent, 19 games. / 5.3%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 0.9 to 24.6 percent, 19 games. / 57.9%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 36.3 to 76.9 percent, 19 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously.
Bg5 19 1.9% Bg5 win/draw/loss 47.4%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 27.3 to 68.3 percent, 19 games. / 10.5%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.9 to 31.4 percent, 19 games. / 42.1%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 23.1 to 63.7 percent, 19 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously.

Common mistakes at 1600-1800

No move at this band is both common and clearly low-scoring, controlling for rating gap. Players at this rating aren’t making an obvious mistake here.

Model games

Real games from the Lichess masters database.

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Master games in this line
WhiteBlackResultYearGame
Carlsen (2881) Grischuk (2792) 1-0 2014 View game
Carlsen (2881) Grischuk (2792) ½-½ 2014 View game
Carlsen (2881) Caruana (2791) ½-½ 2014 View game
Ding Liren (2806) Carlsen (2864) ½-½ 2022 View game
Ding Liren (2799) Carlsen (2865) ½-½ 2022 View game

Build a repertoire from here

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