Caro-Kann Defense (B10): win rates at club level
1.e4 c6, playing as black. Data from 9,647 Lichess blitz games at 1600-1800.
The position
The idea
Like the French Defense, Black is preparing d5 to challenge the center, but c6 leaves room to develop the light-squared bishop outside the pawn chain before locking it in with e6 later. That one move-order difference is why the Caro-Kann has a reputation as one of Black’s soundest replies to e4: fewer structural weaknesses to defend, at the cost of slightly less active piece play than sharper defenses offer.
How it scores at your rating
Scroll to see more →
| Rating band | Games | White / draw / Black | Score for black |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1400-1600 | 8,168 | 48.0%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.9 to 49.1 percent, 8,168 games. / 3.3%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.9 to 3.7 percent, 8,168 games. / 48.8%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.7 to 49.9 percent, 8,168 games. | 50.4%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 49.3 to 51.5 percent, 8,168 games. |
| 1600-1800 | 9,647 | 48.2%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.2 to 49.2 percent, 9,647 games. / 4.2%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.8 to 4.6 percent, 9,647 games. / 47.7%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.7 to 48.7 percent, 9,647 games. | 49.8%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 48.8 to 50.8 percent, 9,647 games. |
| 1800-2000 | 8,878 | 48.5%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.5 to 49.5 percent, 8,878 games. / 5.2%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 4.7 to 5.7 percent, 8,878 games. / 46.3%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 45.3 to 47.3 percent, 8,878 games. | 48.9%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 47.9 to 49.9 percent, 8,878 games. |
| 2000+ | 6,881 | 47.9%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.7 to 49.1 percent, 6,881 games. / 6.6%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 6.0 to 7.2 percent, 6,881 games. / 45.6%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 44.4 to 46.8 percent, 6,881 games. | 48.9%Score for black: 95 percent confidence interval 47.8 to 50.0 percent, 6,881 games. |
What white actually plays next
Top replies at 1600-1800:
Scroll to see more →
| Move | Games | Played | Win / draw / loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| d4 | 4,193 | 43.5% | 48.0%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.5 to 49.5 percent, 4,193 games. / 4.4%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.8 to 5.0 percent, 4,193 games. / 47.6%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.1 to 49.1 percent, 4,193 games. |
| Nf3 | 2,662 | 27.6% | 47.4%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 45.5 to 49.3 percent, 2,662 games. / 4.4%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 3.6 to 5.2 percent, 2,662 games. / 48.2%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 46.3 to 50.1 percent, 2,662 games. |
| Nc3 | 715 | 7.4% | 52.2%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 48.5 to 55.8 percent, 715 games. / 3.8%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.6 to 5.4 percent, 715 games. / 44.1%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 40.5 to 47.7 percent, 715 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| Bc4 | 675 | 7.0% | 44.7%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 41.0 to 48.5 percent, 675 games. / 3.7%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.5 to 5.4 percent, 675 games. / 51.6%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 47.8 to 55.3 percent, 675 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| f4 | 597 | 6.2% | 48.7%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 44.8 to 52.7 percent, 597 games. / 3.7%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 2.4 to 5.5 percent, 597 games. / 47.6%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 43.6 to 51.6 percent, 597 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
| c4 | 238 | 2.5% | 58.4%Win rate: 95 percent confidence interval 52.1 to 64.5 percent, 238 games. / 2.5%Draw rate: 95 percent confidence interval 1.2 to 5.4 percent, 238 games. / 39.1%Loss rate: 95 percent confidence interval 33.1 to 45.4 percent, 238 games.Wide interval, small sample: treat this number cautiously. |
Common mistakes at 1600-1800
No move at this band is both common and clearly low-scoring, controlling for rating gap. Players at this rating aren’t making an obvious mistake here.
Model games
Real games from the Lichess masters database.
Scroll to see more →
| White | Black | Result | Year | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlsen (2856) | Firouzja (2804) | 1-0 | 2021 | View game |
| Ding (2791) | Carlsen (2863) | ½-½ | 2020 | View game |
| Ding (2791) | Carlsen (2863) | 1-0 | 2020 | View game |
| Carlsen (2832) | So (2815) | 1-0 | 2017 | View game |
| Carlsen (2832) | So (2815) | 0-1 | 2017 | View game |
Build a repertoire from here
See the full move tree for players in your rating band: 1600-1800 repertoire explorer (black) →